To be a person is to have a story to tell

October 2008 | Published by Anecdote - Putting Stories to Work. 

Happy Tuesday,

Karen Blixon (aka Isak Dinesen) was a master storyteller and she summarized the human race so beautifully - To be a person is to have a story to tell. A lovely thought to start the October issue of Anecdotally with!

In this issue we have:

• Book Review - Super Crunchers - Why Thinking-by-Numbers is the New Way to be Smart
• Breaking News - We're going to London!
• Technique - Peer Assist for Workshops
• Productivity Tip - Five questions to engage executives
• Learning from Engagements - Four principles that can guide Management Behaviour
• What's happening - What we're up to this month!
• Blog posts you might have missed - Staff induction - it's just learning

We hope that you enjoy reading this issue. Feel free to pass this email on to your colleagues and friends if you think that they would enjoy it too.

Please write to us with your comments, suggestions and ideas.

Super Crunchers - Why Thinking-by-Numbers is the New Way to be Smart

by Ian Ayres

I ordered this book from Amazon as I didn't want to fall into the trap of only reading things that are consistent with my world-view.

The main concept in the book is that large volumes of data can be 'super-crunched' to find patterns and help make decisions. It is pretty well written and has lots of stories that help make the concepts presented more concrete. One story that I find memorable is how WalMart have crunched their data and discovered that people buy strawberry Pop-Tarts when hurricanes are imminent and rush trucks full of them to areas when hurricane warnings are issued.

The book contends that 'Super Crunching' is increasingly replacing individual expertise in decision-making. Ayres describes how one of these 'Super Crunchers' is able to predict the quality and eventual price of Bordeaux wines much earlier and with much more accuracy than the expert wine-tasters who have such enormous sway over the wine industry. These predictions are based on a long-term analysis of wine quality, winter rainfall, growing season temperature and harvest rainfall. Another example is how data-based analysis allows baseball coaches to select the best players without ever having seen them play (replacing 'scouts' as the arbiters of potential).

The main limitation of the book is that it doesn't acknowledge that 'super crunching' only applies with a specific type of problem. It doesn't address complexity. TheCynefin framework describes the nature of four main problem types we face in our organisations, lives and the world in general. 'Super Crunchers' deals predominantly with problems that fall in the 'complicated' domain where there is a single correct answer that can be found if you do enough analysis. The book also assumes that decision-making is intellectual rather than emotional.

The book also raises some of the risks of this 'Super Crunching'. You need heaps of data and a hypothesis to test. Also, like most things, it can be used for good or for evil. Don't underestimate the extent to which this sort of number crunching is being used to identify how to wring the maximum dollar value you in a transaction or to predict the extent to which different people will tolerate poor service.

Regression analysis

Ayres refers to regression as 'the mother of Super Crunching techniques'. It is a statistical procedure that takes raw historical data and estimates how many causal factors influence a single variable of interest. It was first described in the late 1800s by Francis Galton, who is also referenced in the book 'Wisdom of Crowds' by James Surowiecki for his work in correlations.

The book describes how regression analysis enables all the internet-based matching rating and recommendation capabilities. It underpins Google's page ranking system and all Social Network Analysis software. It helps in matching people using dating services, optimising inventory management, job applicant selection and many other applications.

But, regression is extremely complicated mathematics that people find difficult to accept and understand, especially when you are asking them to change. Regression is also completely dependent on the data you already have. If you haven't asked the question and don't have the data, regression cannot help you.

Large scale random sampling

If you don't have the data to run a regression analysis, Ayres suggests creating your own data using large scale random sampling. This approach is much more influential and easier to explain than a regression. It is based on taking very large samples and randomly allocating people to categories which allows you to create groups that are statistically the same. Then, if the only difference in the groups is in how they are treated, then the treatment is the only thing that could be causing a different outcome.

The internet is a great vehicle for conducting such sampling on a huge scale. One company is essentially based on using the internet to see how consumers respond to a range of online experiences to decide which among a range of alternatives is best.

In summary...

Taken in context, the book is very interesting and potentially useful. It is proof positive that if you have to find the answer to something (or to choose between alternatives), have lots (and lots) of data and access to the right statistical expertise, you might be better off using 'Super Crunching' rather than finding an expert to help you decide. But Super Crunching doesn't help us when our problems are complex and where there are no 'correct' answers.

Super Crunchers is a good read, but if you haven't read Freakonomics and The Wisdom of Crowds then they are probably better places to start.

Reviewed by: Mark Schenk

Anecdote's traveling to London next year! That's right! Storytelling for Business Leaders and Putting Stories to Work: Delivering meaningful Change and Engagement will see an English summer around the fourth week of June 2009. If you're in London and will be visiting that time, drop us an email if you're keen to come along to the workshops or just catch up.

Peer Assist Technique for Workshops

We run quite a few leadership and management development programs. Surprisingly, one of the most well-received components of the program is a simple 'peer-assist' activity. I say 'surprisingly' because the process is so simple, and because participants are a bit grumpy about the idea of working at night and are expecting something 'special'.

This was reinforced at a recent program where quite few of the group were decidedly unhappy about missing the first episode of a new season of NCIS (a weekly TV program) and were skeptical about the proposed activity. However; at end of the program, we conducted an after action review to find out what worked, what didn't and what we should do differently next time. And, you guessed it, one of the activities for which we got the most positive feedback was the evening peer assist. Participants felt and realised that simply having a conversation about things at work open so many possibilities through other people's perspectives of a situation.

Many (most?) of our conversations in the workplace are transactional: in fact they are not conversations at all. We give people a call when we need something. Meetings are agenda driven and not spaces for dialogue. We transmit emails and use as proof that we have communicated. When actually what we really need is to open up to different possibilities or worldviews. It's great to simply have a conversation without being judged or being told what the solution is. Get a colleague at work and try it...

The instructions for the evening activity are pretty straightforward. Break participants into groups of 3 or 4 people attempting to make the groups as diverse as possible (experience, gender, cross-functionality etc). Each person describes a current challenge they face in the workplace. Others in the group are encouraged to ask questions, provide different perspectives and to avoid trying to solve the person's challenge for them. This is not a problem solving activity rather an opportunity to ask questions, listen and offer new perspectives.

From the response of hundreds of participants in these activities one can only conclude that not many of these type of conversations take place in the workplace.

How often do you have conversations like these at work? We'd love to hear stories or experiences from your workplace.

Four questions to engage executives

Sometimes you need a simple framework to engage executives in a discussion. I learnt this one from Robert Johnson at the 2008 KM Australia conference. It's called Five Questions to Engage Executives. Start by drawing up this simple chart.

Then engage the group in conversation with these questions:

1. What's working now just the way things are?
2. What can go wrong if we make a change (assessment of risk)?
3. What are the potential benefits of the change?
4. What's the burning platform, or what isn't working now? What if we don't change?
5. How can we take what's working now and add to it to create a new way of working?

Four Principles that can guide Management Behaviour

The aim of our Manager's Program is to create the conditions where managers can have conversations about the impact of their behaviour and its effect in turn on employee engagement. Anecdotes about how people experience management behaviour serve as a discussion tool. One of the things we encourage participants to do is to make a note of things that stick out for them and capture it as a key take away. It's amazing how insightful this collective learning process can be.

Managers need to model the right behaviours with their staff so that they in turn model the right behaviours. And we need something to remind us of the right behaviours we've committed to. These key takeways can act as good reference posts or guiding principles. Here are four key takeaways that can work well.

• It's not what you do; it's the way you do it
• Engage in conversations, don't just talk at staff. Get to know them and what drives them!
• Don't underestimate how perceptive people are
• Respect others as you expect to be treated

What are the principles that guide your behaviour? Would you like to share them?

Consulting Engagements

• Facilitating an HR conference for a major Australian construction firm
• Knowledge retention project with an energy company
• Ongoing leadership development program with a multi-national document and solutions management company and pharmaceutical company
• Assessing the usability of an information system in a construction company
• Building a collaborative capability for a leading Australian University
• Community of practice development for three companies
• Training and mentoring a large Government department in collaborative practices

Workshops that we're running

• Building a Collaborative Workplace Workshop 5th November in Perth and 26th of November in Sydney
• Putting Stories to Work: Delivering meaningful Change and Engagement on 11-12th November in Melbourne

For full details visit http://www.anecdote.com.au/courses

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Staff induction - it's just learning

Shawn blogged this in May 2007

The way you enter an organisation has a big impact on how you perceive the place you work. The recruitment process (really part of staff induction) creates a range of expectations and if these expectations are unmet a subtle erosion of trust occurs - not what you want on day 1. A common view of staff induction is that it all happens the day you start and mostly over within a week. A typical induction involves being taken around the floor by you manager to meet your new colleagues and shown the places to eat, then the new employee sits through a session with a group of other new starters where senior people tell what they think you should know—strategy, policies, who's who in the zoo. Invariably there is too much information to take in on day 1.

I have been asking people, "How long after starting here did you feel you really knew the organisation and job you were doing?" Most people said it took them 12-18 months in a large organisation to really feel on top on things. Staff induction, therefore, needs to be more gradual and unfold over time as we experience the organisation we've joined. We need a slower and longer-term approach, one that better balances intellectual and emotional learning.

Here's how I reckon this might work.

Day 1- the basics of survival, security passes, floor plan, toilets, colleagues, managers, colleagues sitting down for coffee to let you know of the gotchas to avoid

Week 1- why you are here and how your work fits into the big picture, cycles of activities, people you need to know, show how to elicit stories from people, meet some of the people you need to know and get them to tell a story or two, where to find information such as policies and processes and the staff directory, team lunch

Month 1- how to get your expenses paid, stuff about pays, people you need to know, conversation about how to get ahead around here, know what managers to avoid, conversation with your manager about what you need to do to make a good contribution, understand the wider network (check out the social network charts)

Quarter 1- reflect of what you have achieved so far and discuss with your manager, ask "where do things happen here?", understand your purpose and how it links to what the organisation is trying achieve, know who you can trust, have lunch and coffees with people, ask questions and stay curious.

Year 1- sit back and think about what you learnt, help a new employee get up and running, tell them your stories of how you started, wonder what you don't know.

Staff induction is simply learning how you fit in and learning is social. Each step of the way conversations are necessary. Here are some more things I believe about learning. If you think about staff induction as a learning process we immediately understand why relying solely on a classroom approach is ineffective.

The job of HR professionals is to provide the formal induction activities and then support the informal methods in the full knowledge that induction occurs primarily informally over a period of a year of so.